Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Chana to trade bullish in long term

Chana prices are expected to remain sideways as demand from the local stockiest may support the upside, while fears that government might step up to curb rising prices may restrict sharp gains.

 Chana May contract to trade in the range of Rs 3650 and Rs 3880 per qtl levels in short term. Long term fundamentals remain supportive for Chana prices on the back of supply concerns caused by lower output and growing consumption.

Arrivals in Rajasthan has begun since the beginning of April, however, the pace is very slow on account of sharp drop in yields and thereby output in Rajasthan, the second largest Chana producing state.

Chana prices witnessed mixed trades throughout the day owing to peak arrivals in the domestic market and fears of government intervention in MP to curb hoarding of stocks on one hand and lower crop output estimates in the current season on the other. Prices settled 0.52% lower in the spot market.

As per the NCDEX circular dated 11th April, Initial Margin(IM) of 10 % of the value of contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher will be imposed on all contracts and yet to be launched contracts of Chana with effect from beginning of the day Thursday April 12, 2012. To curb excess volatility in prices, government has also imposed special margin on Chana and has cut position limits last week.

Chana production is expected to decline by 6.8% to 7.66 mln tonnes as compared to 8.22 million tonnes in the last year. As output is likely to decline, India's pulses imports in 2011-12 (Apr-Mar) may rise nearly 10% from 2.75 mln tn in the previous year. India's consumption of pulses is on the rise with an annual growth of around 5% but production is seen lower, which may lead to increase in imports this year.

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