PMS Commodity Equity shares Trading Tips MCX NCDEX NSE BSE Exchange Research Technical De-Mat: April 2012

Monday, April 30, 2012

Energy trading ideas for 30 April

Crude trading range for the day is 5499-5525. Support for Crude is at 5508 and below could see a test of 5499 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 5521, a move above could see prices testing 5525.Technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18 days is currently indicating 60.96, where as 50DMA is at 5422.46 and crude is trading above the same.

DLF follow Up of Last week

Now bulls have taken over DLF drive. It is now rebounding after forming double and tripple bottom (Roughly) on daily ,monthly, Weekly charts. Now there might not be any bad news for K.P singh. So buy on dips or average the longs for 230 and above in next three months

Saturday, April 28, 2012

(10:19 AM 04/28/2012)SPREAD CALL : SELL COPPER APR AND BUY COPPER JUNE DIFF@RS. 1.5 WITH SL OF 0 FOR TGT:RS. 4:MCX

Friday, April 27, 2012

Soyabean resume up trend on fresh buying

After witnessing profit booking at higher level in last trading session, Soyabean Prices at NCDEX, May contract trades up on fresh buying sentiments in today's trading session.
It is trading in the range of 3483-3527 per quintal in today's trading session till now.

Soyabean prices trading at NCDEX, May contract is having short term support at 3440 level and resistance is seen at 3570.

Chinese import demand has supported the International market. Further, significant reduction in the Soybean production in South American Countries like Argentina and Brazil has given enough support to the bulls.

Technically, 14 days RSI on Daily chart at 82 indicates that it is in over bought zone.

Some profit booking is expected in near term. However over all trend is likely to remain firm for near term.

‘’Traders should look for the opportunity to buy at lower levels. ”,

(3:44 PM 04/27/2012) RMSEED SELL CALL UPDATE: BOOK A PROFIT AT 3956 OR TRAIL UR SL AT 3985 FOR FURTHER TGTS

SPECIAL TRADING TIME Market timings Saturday, April 28, 2012

SPECIAL TRADING TIME Market timings Saturday, April 28, 2012 Normal Mkt Open 11:15 hrs Normal Mkt Close 12:45 hrs Closing session NSE/BSE

Buy Nifty May fut around 5160-65 with stoploss of 5120 for Target of 5205/5265

Buy Nifty May fut around 5160-65 with stoploss of 5120 for Target of 5205/5265 . Nifty will find support at 5132 where it has taken support earlier also and may form a double bottom. It will get support very well at 5120-25 due to the 50% retracement of Fibbonacci on daily charts. Buy on every dip with sl of 5120.

Sugar, Wheat and Potato trading ideas for April 27

Sugar prices are expected to remain firm in the intraday on improved demand ahead of summer season coupled with expectations of further exports. In the long term, price trend would depend on planting figures of 2012-13 crop and decision with respect to further exports. Also, it is necessary to keep close watch on Brazilian Sugar harvest.

Sugar futures witnessed mixed trades throughout the day and settled 0.03% lower on Thursday. However,

12:39 PM 27/04/2012 BUY BANK NIFTY BETWEEN 10160-10170 FOR TARGET OF 10315-10380 STOP LOSS 10110

Buy DLF for one or two months for Target of 200

Opportunity: DLF down side story is on track which may find a crucial support at 168 for it to revive again to the levels of 200 and can get a way to recovery. As there is no hope fundamentaly in the stock but if we see technically then it has made two times double bottom arnd 170 on daily charts , two times double bottom on monthly and weekly charts . So this time it may form double bottom on quarterly charts and tripple bottom on weekly charts. So I strongly recommend to add this stock for a view of one or two month with a small stoploss on closing basis below 165. It reversed before going oversold on Stochastic and RSI many times earlier and this time it may happen too.

Technical View on Crude Oil MCX

Crude Oil May contract facing resistance at every point above 5500 and giving opportunity every time to sell on rise for profit of 30-40 points. It is still a good bet to sell till it crosses above 5525 as there are very thin chances to go above this level considering the health of global economies. But if USDINR gives some adverse movement then we can see some upward move in price due multiplier effect as we are the importer countries and currency impact may hit our view of sell on rise for a movement but overall it is about to come down as its MACD may show some diversence and it is about to get reversal after forming double or triple bottom on daily charts.

Buy infosys for long term with sl of 2050

Infosys to trade in the range of 2300 -2450 for the week forward . It will face heavy resistance of 2450 to break above and if sustains above it then very soon we can see it around 2750. Trading above 2400 will bring it in neutral zone or normal zone on RSI of daily charts.

PNB and ICICI Bank Price difference Spread in Negative (Opportunity may be to Buy PNB and Sell ICICI Bank )

PNB and ICICI bank price difference has come down to negative after a long time. Is it again an good opportunity to buy PNB and Sell ICICI for target of 100 as ICICI prices are seem to be trading on premium inspite of Result Expectations..

Stock exchanges will be open for trade this Saturday for one-and-a-half hours

Stock exchanges will be open for trade this Saturday for one-and-a-half hours in the third “special trading session” in four months. The NSE says it is “upgrading the capacity of futures and options trading system hardware and software to the next generation system to improve processing capability and handle increased activities in the market.” And the BSE has to follow suit or risk losing out on business to its arch rival. This increase in the number of special trading sessions causes one to wonder if the stock exchanges are slowly preparing the ground for making Saturday a regular trading session. What do you think?

11:04 AM 27/04/2012 BUY TCS FUT ABOVE 1210 FOR TARGET OF 1230-1250 STOP LOSS 1198

10:29 AM 27/04/2012 BOOK PARTIAL PROFIT IN CHANA JUNE AT 3872, HOLD REST WITH SL AT COST

10:16 AM 27/04/2012 BOOK PARTIAL PROFIT IN CHANA MAY BTST CALL AT 3765, HOLD REST WITH SL AT COST

Nifty Outlook for Today

Nifty closed down 13.00 points (-0.25%) at 5,189.00 as sentiment in the market remain cautious a day after Standard & Poor's cut the country's ratings outlook, traders prefer to book profit Nifty made bearish candle on daily basis with lower shadow, significant increase in the volume with negative crossover in RSI implicate that sentiments are negative and bearishness will prevail below today’s low (5160). Market for the past three trading sessions is in range of 70 points (5,230-5,160) breakout from these levels will decide the trend, Nifty is trading above its 200 Day SMA (5,150) which could act as immediate support for that market. Trading strategy would be to Sell if market resist at 5,220 and Buy if support at 5, 160.

First resistance for the Nifty is 5,239 and next resistance 5,275 and first support for the Nifty is 5,163 and next support at 5,123.

Support and Resistance

NIFTY R-1 5260 R-2 5280 S-1 5238 S-2 5220 -S3 5190
BANK NIFTY R-1 10250 R-2 10310 S-1 10220 S-2 10160 S-3 10080

RESULTS TO WATCH TODAY-
AXIS BANK, HEXAWARE, HCC , ICICI BANK, INDIABULLS FIN, SIEMENS , THOMAS COOK

Thursday, April 26, 2012

(3:33 PM 04/26/2012) CRUDE SELL CALL UPDATE : BOOK A PROFIT AT 5484 OR TRAIL UR SL AT 5512 FOR FURTHER TGTS

(3:33 PM 04/26/2012) RMSEED SELL CALL TGT 3940 ACHIEVED

(3:12 PM 04/26/2012) RMSEED SELL CALL UPDATE : BOOK A PROFIT AT 3948 OR WAIT FOR NEXT TGTS WITH REVISE SL 3975

Agri Commodities production and arrivals

Pepper Arrivals in domestic market stood at 20 tonnes while offtakes were 16 tonnes on Tuesday. Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 7.2% to 3.20 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.98 lakh tonnes in 2011 with sharp rise of 24% in Indonesian pepper output and in Vietnam by 10%.

Pepper production in Vietnam and Indonesia is projected at 1.10 lakh tonnes while that in Indonesia is projected to be 41 thousand tonnes. (Source: Financial Express). Domestic consumption of Pepper

2:43 PM 26/04/2012 Book Profit in GBPINR at 85.65 or Trail SL above cost as per our Buy call initiated in the range of 85.52-85.54

(1:42 PM 04/26/2012)NICKEL MAY SELL ARND 937-938 SL 944.50 TGT:931/925:MCX

Cash margins halt rally in NCDEX Barley futures

Barley Futures have tumbled in National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) on Thursday on news of imposition of 20% special margin on the long side on all running and yet to be launched contracts with effect from Friday, April 27, 2012.

NCDEX May contract has fallen 2.3% to 1668 after gain 3.5% in April till Wednesday while June contract has fallen 2.24% to Rs 1705 after gaining 4.43% in April till Wednesday when it closed at Rs 1744 per quintal.
Speculative buying by traders had pushed Barley prices higher and aided by strong demand from breweries to make beer whose consumption goes up in the summer months. Cattle making industries also use barley as raw materials and restricted supply in spot markets pushed prices in April.

Special Margin in Barley (BARLEYJPR) Contracts

Clients are hereby informed that in terms of Bye-laws, Rules and Regulations of the Exchange(NCDEX), Special Margin of 20% (in cash) on the Long side will be imposed on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Barley (SYMBOL: BARLEYJPR) with effect from beginning of day Friday, April 27, 2012.

1:24 PM 26/04/2012 Buy CPO June MCX at CMP for T1 639 T2 641 SL 632.10

1:22 PM 26/04/2012 BOOK PARTIAL PROFIT IN ADANIENT AT 284.5 AND MOVE STOP LOSS TO COST

12:30 PM 26/04/2012 Sell JPYINR MCX-SX / NSE-CDS May in the range of 65.02-65, T1 64.80 SL 65.14,

HOW TO TRADE WITH LEVELS

FIRSTLY LOOK AT THE CURRENT MAKET PRICE
THEN LOOK AT THE ATP (AVERAGE TRADING PRICE
IF CMP IS GREATER THAN ATP GO LONG
IF CMP IS LESS THAN ATP GO SHORT
IF YOU ARE LONG USE SL OF S1 AND TGT OF R1& R2 IF CMP IS BETWEEN OFATP AND R1
IF TGT OF R1 IS ACHIEVED THEN TRAIL YOUR SL TO ATP FOR TGT OF R2
IF YOU ARE SHORT USE SL OF R1 AND TGT OF S1 AND S2 IF CMP IS BETWEEN OF ATP AND S1
IF TGT OF S1 IS ACHIEVED THEN TRAIL YOUR SL TO ATP FOR TGT OF S2
IF CMP IS BETWEEN S1 AND S2 SELL WITH SL OF ATP FOR TGT OF S2 AND S3
IF CMP IS BETWEEN R1 AND R2 BUY WITH SL OF ATP FOR TGT OF R2 AND R3

NOTE:

1. ALWAYS TRAIL YOUR SL AS PER LEVELS GIVEN AND POSITION YOU HOLD IF YOR FIRST TGT ACHIEVED

2. YOU CAN LOOK AT REAL TIME ATP REFLECTED ON YOUR SCREEN WHILE TRADING

3. IF MARKET OPENS WITH GAP REFER WEEKLY LEVELS FOR SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

4. EVEN IF YOU WANT SHORTER LEVELS YOU CAN CALCULATE AT YOUR OWN BY VISITING www. research-view.blogspot.com

11:58 AM 26/04/2012 Book partial profit in copper at 430.20 and Rest hold with Sl at cost

11:57 AM 26/04/2012 Buy GBPINR MCX-SX / NSE-CDS May in the range of 85.52-85.54, T1 85.74 SL 85.40

(11:52 AM 04/26/2012) CRUDEOIL MAY SELL ARND 5495-5500 SL 5522 TGT 5477/5456 : MCX

11:28 AM 26/04/2012 BUY CESC FUT ABOVE 256.2 FOR TARGET OF 260-264 STOP LOSS 254

Sell AXIS Bank for Target arnd 950 - Descending Triangle Pattern on Daily Charts

I would say an Axis Bank because at Rs 1100 it’s made almost a picture perfect descending triangle and come down from that. That gives a target of Rs 950 for it. These distribution patterns have some meaning. It’s very unlikely that 100 or 500 midcap stocks show a distribution pattern, breakdown and one fine morning revert back and reverse, and don’t give a follow through.
Now there is a very clear message in the market, banks are breaking down, cracking down and that’s why Axis comes in the list of stocks to short.

10:25 AM 26/04/2012 Buy MCX Copper (April) at 428.40-428.50 for targeting 431.20 with stop loss below 427

Buy Infosys for Long term Target Rs. 2750

Post the correction, the stock is now trading at a 20-25% discount to TCS and Cognizant. Any early signs of pickup will be adequately rewarded, given extreme pessimism on the company.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Yes Bank a market performer; target of Rs 375

Yes Bank revealed that loan growth would improve, NIMs have bottomed-out and asset quality will remain stable. The bank firmly remains on track of its version 2.0 strategy which targets substantial diversification in loan book and granularity in funding. Core SME portfolio is expected to grow much faster than balance sheet while retail lending would receive a boost from recent introduction of six new products. CASA mobilization has been catalyzed by higher rate being offered by the bank while aggressive branch expansion has been driving accretion of retail TDs. Yes Bank’s reliance on whole funding would decline considerably over the next two years.”
“NIM after declining in Q4 FY12 by 10-15bps is expected to improve structurally driven by changing loan/deposit mix and benign liquidity conditions. Despite substantial increase in opex, C/I ratio would remain comfortably below 40% supported by margin expansion and healthy fee income growth. Asset quality has not shown any kind of stress in the ongoing credit cycle and outlook on credit cost remains sanguine. Improving business dynamics should elevate RoA above 1.5%. Capital raising will most likely take place in early FY14 with Tier-1 ratio at healthy 9.4%. Current valuation (2.2x 1-yr roll fwd P/adj.BV) though at 10% discount to six-year mean (justified by structural moderation in growth) is at 10% premium to Axis Bank. Nearterm upside in the stock could be capped by expected weak performance in Q4 FY12. Upside to valuation exists in the longer term from higher than expected NIM improvement. Retain Market Performer rating on Yes Bank with enhanced 9m target of Rs375,”

Chana to trade bullish in long term

Chana prices are expected to remain sideways as demand from the local stockiest may support the upside, while fears that government might step up to curb rising prices may restrict sharp gains.

Chana May contract to trade in the range of Rs 3650 and Rs 3880 per qtl levels in short term. Long term fundamentals remain supportive for Chana prices on the back of supply concerns caused by lower output and growing consumption.

Arrivals in Rajasthan has begun since the beginning of April, however, the pace is very slow on account of sharp drop in yields and thereby output in Rajasthan, the second largest Chana producing state.

Chana prices witnessed mixed trades throughout the day owing to peak arrivals in the domestic market and fears of government intervention in MP to curb hoarding of stocks on one hand and lower crop output estimates in the current season on the other. Prices settled 0.52% lower in the spot market.

As per the NCDEX circular dated 11th April, Initial Margin(IM) of 10 % of the value of contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher will be imposed on all contracts and yet to be launched contracts of Chana with effect from beginning of the day Thursday April 12, 2012. To curb excess volatility in prices, government has also imposed special margin on Chana and has cut position limits last week.

Chana production is expected to decline by 6.8% to 7.66 mln tonnes as compared to 8.22 million tonnes in the last year. As output is likely to decline, India's pulses imports in 2011-12 (Apr-Mar) may rise nearly 10% from 2.75 mln tn in the previous year. India's consumption of pulses is on the rise with an annual growth of around 5% but production is seen lower, which may lead to increase in imports this year.

7 reasons why Indians love gold

Significance of Gold: People buy gold for a variety of reasons such as for its auspicious sentiment; as an investment (Gold continues to command long term value, a tag for being a safe haven); hedge against inflation; asset allocation, etc. Gold also carries a high perceived value and a high emotional quotient. It reinforces closeness of relationships. Gold coins in smaller denominations are also considered apt for Corporate gifting and rewards for contests or for commemorative giveaways.
The Indian Consumer’s sentiment towards Gold: Many people think that Indians are gold crazy. Though this statement cannot be completely negative, the truth is that Gold has always had a special significance for all ages. The old adage - all that glitters is not gold, also in a way underlines the importance accorded to Gold. Gold lends itself as a commemorative medium to various engagements like golden anniversaries, golden jubilee, gold medals, gold credit card etc. In India people buy gold anytime and not only during special occasions like weddings, festivals or special events. Gold is also offered to Indian deities. The Indian Hindu calendar even has auspicious days to buy gold like Dhanteras and Dassera. Gold is also bought on festivals like Onam, Pongal and Durga Puja.
Though gold has several applications or uses the main reasons why Indians take to gold are:

Gold is considered an equivalent for liquid cash: Gold is highly liquid and portable as a Security or Asset. It can be converted to cash anytime when an emergency arises and is considered a friend in need.
Gold is considered as a Status Symbol: Especially in India gold symbolizes wealth. In Indian weddings the Gold brought by the bride shows her family's status and wealth. It is believed that a bride wearing 24k gold on their wedding to bring luck and happiness throughout the married life.
Gold is a very good investment: Gold is an asset which has consistently increased in value and thereby considered as a safe and secure investment. In the last five years Gold has delivered over 20% YOY return. It is considered an effective diversifier which helps to reduce portfolio risk.
Gold is considered as gift item: It's precious and worthy across all cultures and times. The gold jewelry is given as gifts during weddings, festivals and other special occasions.
Gold has great religious significance: Gold is the symbol of the Hindu Goddess Lakshmi and considered highly auspicious. Gold is brought or presented on festivals like Dhanteras and Akshaya Tritiya. Toe rings are never made of gold as it represents the goddess of wealth and should not be soiled by touching a human's feet.
Great Ornamental Value: Who can resist gold ornaments? Women of every age and time have always loved wearing gold ornaments. Moreover, Gold ornaments are never out of fashion. It also may be remembered that wedding rings are also traditionally made of gold to mark a long lasting relationship.
Great value as Heirloom: Gold jewelry is something which can be passed down from one generation to the other as ancestral property.This is why people say Gold is forever!

The importance of Akshaya Tritya: According to the Hindu Calendar, Akshaya Tritiya is a very auspicious occasion for new beginnings. During this period, people enter into new business ventures, make travel plans and also celebrate weddings. Buying gold is also a popular activity, as it is the symbol of wealth and prosperity. Gold bars, coins and gold jewellery bought and worn on Akshaya Tritiya signify never diminishing good fortune. During the period both banks and jewellers promote gold sales aggressively, offering the best prices and discounts. Customer demand during Akshaya Tritiya surges due to a belief that gold purchases go a long way in securing the future.

Allocate 10% in gold during stock market uncertainty

In the last few years, gold has really done very well, and therefore, has attracted a lot of attention. We personally believe that gold is a part of an asset allocation strategy. In the normal course of time, when there is no uncertainty in the equity market, we recommend 5-7% allocation of your assets in gold.
In times of uncertainty, then you can increase your allocation to maybe 10%, but not more than that. It has done very well, but that doesn’t mean that the sharp rise will continue.

S&P cuts India outlook to negative

Ratings agency Standard & Poor's on Wednesday cut India's outlook to negative from stable, citing slow progress on its fiscal situation, as well as deteriorating economic indicators.
There is a one in three chance of a downgrade to India's credit rating if external conditions continue to deteriorate, the ratings agency said in a statement.