PMS Commodity Equity shares Trading Tips MCX NCDEX NSE BSE Exchange Research Technical De-Mat: July 2012

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

LME Stock:

Copper -250, Aluminium +46575, Nickel +1236, Zinc -2700, Lead -950

(1:26 PM 07/31/2012) NIFTY BUY CALL TGT 5215.90 AHCIEVED

1:06 PM 31/07/2012 BUY MCX ALUMINIUM AUGUST AT 105.4 FOR TARGET 106, WITH SL AT 105.1

1:05 PM 31/07/2012 BUY CENTURYTEX ABOVE 290 FOR TARGET OF 295-300 STOP LOSS 283.8 CASH LEVELS

(1:01 PM 07/31/2012) NIFTY BUY CALL UPDATE: BOOK A PROFIT AT 5196.50 OR TRAIL UR SL 5159 FOR NEXT TGTS

(12:34 PM 07/31/2012) NIFTY FUT BUY ARND 5180-85 SL 5144.50 TGT 5215.90/5238 : NSE

(12:13 PM 07/31/2012) NICKEL AUG SELL ARND 906-7 SL 913.50 TGT 900.20/894 : MCX

11:51 AM 31/07/2012 IST TGT 30320 ACHIEVED IN GOLD

Economic Data

11:30am EUR German Retail Sales m/m -0.1% 0.6% -0.3% IMPACT : EURO WEAK

11:30 AM 31/07/2012 BUY NIFTY 5300 CALL AROUND 50-45 FOR TARGET OF 70-90 STOP LOSS 20

11:16 AM 31/07/2012 BOOK PARTIAL PROFIT IN GOLD AT 30292, HOLD REST WITH SL AT COST

11:06 AM 31/07/2012 BUY CANB BANK FUT AT CMP AOR AT 363-361 FOR TARGET OF 369-374 STOP LOSS 355

RBI Credit Policy Review

RBI keeps repo rate unchanged.The Reserve Bank of India has cut SLR to 23% from 24%

EGOM meet today for Agriculture conditions

AGRO COMMODITY MARKET LOOKS VOLATILE AHEAD OF EGOM MEET TODAY AT 5.00PM. TO DISCUSS THE DROUGHT CONDITION, WHICH INDIA COULD FACED IN 30 YEARS. CAN SEE STEPS SUCH AS IMPOSING STOCK HOLDING LIMITS AND BAN ON FUTURES TRADING OF SOME COMMODITIES

Commodity markets may remain volatile

COMMODITY MARKET IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VOLATILE AHEAD OF FED MEET ON WEDNESDAY AND EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK MEET ON THURSDAY.

Commodity Morning Updates for Today

Gold trading range for the day is 30094-30220.Gold gained marginally on expectations that the Fed & ECB will move to stimulate their respective economies. Indian Gold imports fall 35% in July on near-record prices. European Commissions index of economic sentiment across Eurozone dropped to 87.9 in July. Gold is trading above 50DMA, which is at 30041, now intraday gold is holding support at 30094 and resistance at 30220.

Silver trading range for the day is 52842-54392.Silver yesterday ended higher as investor taken the position ahead of FED & ECB meet. Spot silver breaks above $28oz to 17-session high ahead of FOMC meeting. Investors have interpreted signs of slowing US economic growth as increasing likelihood that Fed will implement more stimulus Silver is trading below 50DMA, which is at 54187, with intraday support seen at 52842 and resistance at 54392.

Crude trading range for the day is 4935-5051.Crude trader caution ahead of stimulus measures coming from central bank meetings in the US & Europe. Oil prices continue to be supported by worries about supply from sanctions-hit Iran. Meanwhile sentiments that US crude stockpiles may have grown this week also pushed oil down. Crude is holding with a support at 4935 and resistance will be likely at 5051.

Copper trading range for the day is 417.1-424.5.Copper dropped as investors weighed the likelihood of further stimulus measures from ECB and U.S.IMFs pessimistic comments over the European debt crisis will continue to weigh markets down. Japans June exports of copper cathode to China, nearly doubled from the same month a year ago. Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 249075mt that is down by -1225mt.

DATAS FOR THE DAY :-

11:30am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.6% -0.3%
12:15pm EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.2% 0.4%
1:25pm EUR German Unemployment Change 9K 7K
1:30pm EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 10.2% 10.1%

2:30pm EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 2.4% 2.4%
2:30pm EUR Unemployment Rate 11.2% 11.1%
2:30pm EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.3% 0.2%
6:00pm USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.1%
6:00pm USD Employment Cost Index q/q 0.5% 0.4%
6:00pm USD Personal Spending m/m 0.1% 0.0%
6:00pm USD Personal Income m/m 0.5% 0.2%
6:30pm USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y -1.5% -1.9%
7:15pm USD Chicago PMI 52.6 52.9
7:30pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 61.5 62.0

Index levels

nifty levels-r-1 5225 r-2 5250 r-3 5270 s-1 5195 s-2 5170 s3 5120
bank nifty- r-1 10500, r-2 10550 r-3 10630 s-1 10400 s-2 10320

Monday, July 30, 2012

3:26 PM 30/07/2012 Buy MCX Gold (Aug) at 29770-29780 for targeting 29840 with SL below 29745

3:18 PM 30/07/2012 HOLD ICICI BANK TRADE WITH EXITING LEVELS

3:09 PM 30/07/2012 book full profit in auropharma at 104.2 and raymond at 346.5

2:39 PM 30/07/2012 BUY RAYMAOND FUT ABOVE 345 FOR TARGET OF 350-355 STOP LOSS 341.5

Continuation Wedge (Bullish)

Implication

A Continuation Wedge (Bullish) is considered a bullish signal. It indicates a possible continuation of the current uptrend.

Description

A Continuation Wedge (Bullish) consists of two converging trend lines. The trend lines are slanted downward. Unlike the Triangles where the apex is pointed to the right, the apex of this pattern is slanted downwards at an angle. This is because prices edge steadily lower in a converging pattern i.e. there are lower highs and lower lows. A bullish signal occurs when prices break above the upper trendline.

Over the weeks or months that this pattern forms the trend appears downward but the long-term range is still upward. Volume should diminish as the pattern forms.

Trading Considerations

Pattern Duration

Consider the duration of the pattern and its relationship to your trading time horizons. The duration of the pattern is considered to be an indicator of the duration of the influence of this pattern. The longer the pattern the longer it will take for the price to move to the Target. The shorter the pattern the sooner the price move. If you are considering a short-term trading opportunity, look for a pattern with a short duration. If you are considering a longer-term trading opportunity, look for a pattern with a longer duration.

Target Price

The target price provides an important indication about the potential price move that this pattern indicates. Consider whether the target price for this pattern is sufficient to provide adequate returns after your costs (such as commissions) have been taken into account. A good rule of thumb is that the target price must indicate a potential return of greater than 5% before a pattern should be considered useful. However you must consider the current price and the volume of shares you intend to trade. Also, check that the target price has not already been achieved.

Criteria that Supports

Volume

Volume should diminish as the pattern forms.

Criteria that Refutes

Moving Average

The penetration of the 200-day Moving Average by the price is a false bear signal.

Rising or Stable Volume

Volume should diminish as the pattern forms. If volume remains the same or increases this signal is less reliable.

Underlying Behavior

In this pattern prices edge steadily lower in a converging pattern i.e. there are lower highs and lower lows indicating that bears are winning over bulls. However, at the breakout point the bulls emerge the victors and the price rises.

Although it appears things are changing and the "BULL" is lurking, this pattern is typically "corrective" in nature to a larger trend or pattern. These wedges can typically retrace 50-65% of the FALL before it resumes the primary trend.

Statistics

Percent of successful formations – 81% Average rise of successful formations – 46% Likely rise – 20% Failure rate - 37% Average time to throwback completion – 11 days

Primary Markets (IPO) – Basics

Introduction
Career Point Infosystems Limited almost doubles on listing!!! Coal India IPO to hit the markets with a plan to raise as much as $3 billion!!!! Is this the kind of news that makes you wonder what this is all about??? Then look no further. This article throws some light on the concept of Initial Public Offerings (IPO). Naresh is a MBA working in a MNC with little or no knowledge of stock markets but has surplus funds ready for investment. Like many other people he is fascinated by the spectacular gains offered by some of the new companies on the very first day of listing. He would like to invest in an IPO but he does not know how to go about it. So let’s get started.

What is a Primary Market?
Whenever a Company wants to raise funds for expansion or other corporate purposes or when the promoters decide to offer shares of the company to the public they decide to list the company on the stock exchange. The company approaches the stock market regulator Securities Exchange Board India (SEBI) with its intent to list on the stock exchange. The company has to file all the financials and other details with SEBI in a specified format which is known as Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP).
The Company may issue shares at Par Value or at a Discount or at a Premium.
At Par Value: For example if the Face Value of the shares is Rs 10 and the shares are issued to the public at Rs 10 then it is said that the company is issuing shares to the public at Par Value.
Premium: If the Face Value of the shares is Rs 10 and the shares are issued to the public at a price above Rs 10 say at Rs 70 then it is said that the company is issuing shares to the public at a Premium of Rs 60 over the Face Value of Rs 10.
Discount: If the Face Value of the shares is Rs 10 and the shares are issued to the public at a price below Rs 10 then it is said that the company is issuing shares to the public at a Discount to the Face Value. Most of the companies issue their shares to the public at a Premium to the Face Value.
The primary purpose behind issuing securities (shares) in this manner is to raise Capital for the Company for expansion, working capital, paying debt, acquisitions or for any other corporate purpose.

What are the different kinds of Public Issues?

Initial Public Offering (IPO): When an unlisted Company offers its securities (shares) to the public for the first time it is termed as IPO.
Follow On Public Offering (FPO): When a listed Company makes subsequent offer of securities (shares) after the 1^st issue, to the public it is termed as FPO.
Rights Issue: In a rights issue a listed company decides to issue shares only to existing shareholders (as on a record date). In a rights issue the shares are allotted in a ratio related to the existing number of shares already held by the existing shareholders.
Preferential Issue: An issue of shares made to specific designated buyers is known as a Preferential Allotment. Preferential Allotment can be made to Promoters or other set of investors.

Merchant Bankers
The company coming out with an IPO generally seeks the advice of a Merchant Bank (Book Managers). The Merchant Bankers help in determining the type of security to issue, the price at which the securities will be offered, the best time to hit the market, marketing of the issue, collecting the money, the allotment of shares and the refund of excess money collected. In return for this service the Merchant Banker charges a fee. The price of the IPO may be determined by the Company Management in consultation with the Merchant Bankers or arrived at through the process of Book Building. In an IPO offering a certain percentage of shares are reserved for each category of investors like Qualified Institutional Bidders (QIBs), Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), High Networth Investors (HNIs), Mutual Funds, Retail Investors and Employees of the Company. People applying for an IPO could be divided into two categories:
Short Term Investors: These investors are the ones looking for Listing Gains and sell the shares of the company in the initial few days after listing.
Long Term Investors: These investors are the ones who invest for the long term keeping in mind the long term fundamentals and financials of the company for capital appreciation over the long term.

How to select an IPO?
The following points could serve as guidelines to pick up an IPO for investment:

Start with analyzing the background of the Company/Promoters, their past track records, core competencies and credibility.
The Company financials also help you decide on various factors such as past sales growth, profit growth, profit margins, Order Book status and comparison with similar companies in the same business.
Also read the prospectus (DRHP) for any risks that might be involved.
Make sure the Issue Price is good enough (reasonable) for investing. This can be determined by studying the Price Earning (P/E) multiples and future growth prospects of the company.

How to Apply for an IPO?

To apply for an IPO one needs to fill out an Application Form readily available outside Stock Exchanges, Stock Brokers, Banks etc.
You need to fill the form specifying the no of shares applied for, the price to be paid, the demat account number and other details. The applicant needs to make the necessary funds available to the Bank designated as IPO’s collection center. Alternatively you can also apply online through the broker’s website.
ASBA (Application Supported by Blocked Amounts) is the new investor friendly way of applying for IPO’s which ensures that investor’s funds leave his bank account only upon allocation of shares in the IPO. The ASBA process also ensures that only the requisite amounts of funds are debited to the investor’s bank account on allotment of shares. In this mechanism, the need for refunds is completely obviated.

What after you apply for an IPO?

After you closure of the book building process the company, merchant bankers and the registrars decide the allotment of shares.
Depending upon how many times the IPO is oversubscribed you get a proportional allotment of shares in your Demat Account on a prorate basis. The higher the oversubscription the lesser the allotment.
In case you get less allotment than applied for you get a refund of the remaining money in round about a week’s time from the allotment process of the Issue.

Conclusion
So through this article we have learnt about the Primary Markets and IPO’s and ways of investing in them. Hopefully people like Naresh can now look at the Primary markets as a good investment option. Please do let us know your views and comments. In the next article we will be exploring the Secondary Markets where Majority of the Action takes place. Till then Happy Investing!!!

1:07 PM 30/07/2012 SELL ICICI BANK FUT BELOW 966 FOR TARGET OF 955-950 STOP LOSS 973

12:53 PM 30/07/2012 BUY BAJAJ-AUTO FUT ABOVE 1615 FOR TARGET OF 1630-1650 STOP LOSS 1603

12:41 PM 30/07/2012 TARGET HIT IN NICKEL, EXIT THE COUNTER

12:26 PM 30/07/2012 CLOSE HDFC BANK SELL TRADE AT 591

(11:37 AM 07/30/2012) ZINC JULY SELL ARND 101.95-102.10 SL 102.70 TGT 101.30/100.50 : MCX

11:37 AM 30/07/2012 SELL MCX NICKEL JULY AT 881, SL AT 884 FOR TGTS 878.5

(11:29 AM 07/30/2012) ITC FUT SELL ARND 257-257.30 SL 260.90 TGT 253.70/251.10 : NSE

(11:13 AM 07/30/2012) PPRM AUG SELL ARND 44250-80 SL 44571 43990/43720 : NCDEX

Advantages and Disadvantages of Mutual Funds

Before investing in mutual funds an investor should understand if it suits his requirement of not . Therefore one should go through all the advantages and disadvantages of mutual funds .

Advantage and disadvantage of Mutual funds in India

Advantages of Mutual Funds

Management: One of the biggest advantage is that in very low cost the investor gets his investment managed by experts. If they want to get the services solely for their investment , it can be very expensive but by investing in MF they can take advantage of the scale.

Scale Advantage : The transaction costs of a single indivisual is very less because mutual funds buy and sell in big volumes.

Diversification : With mutual fund investment your money gets diversified in a lot of things, which helps in minimising the risk factor. Also if one particular sector does’nt perform well the loss can be compensated with profits made in other sectors.

Liquidity and Simplicity : You can sell or buy mutual funds anytime. So mutual funds are good if you want to invest in something which you can liquidate easily . Also MF are very simple to buy and sell .

Disadvantages of Mutual Funds

Risks and Costs: Changing market conditions can create fluctuations in the value of a mutual fund investment. Also there are fees and expenses associated with investing in mutual funds that do not usually occur when purchasing individual securities directly.

No Guarantees: As Mutual funds invest in debt as well equities , there are no sure returns . Returns depends on the market conditions .

No Control: Investor does not have control on investment , all the decisions are taken by the fund manager. Investor can just join or leave the show.

10:25 AM 30/07/2012 BUY MCX COPPER AUGUST AT 422.50-422.2 SL BELOW 421 FOR TGTS 425-426.35

Commodity Updates for 30/07/2012

Gold trading range for the day is 29765-29815. Gold settled flat as investors took profits after data showed that economic growth has weakened Gold trimmed its gains after data showed U.S. GDP slowed in the second quarter from the first quarter Physical gold traders in India stayed on the sidelines after prices stayed in vicinity of their highest level in four weeks. Gold is trading above 50DMA, which is at 29716, now intraday gold is holding support at 29765 and resistance at 29815.

Silver trading range for the day is 53167-53321. Silver were supported from weaker dollar and general improvement in risk tolerance that came with Draghi’s comments. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi promised to do everything to prevent the euro zone from breaking up The ECB policy meeting on Thursday will also attract wide attention after Draghi’s comments last week. Silver is trading below 50DMA, which is at 54227, with intraday support seen at 53167 and resistance at 53321.

Crude trading range for the day is 4987-5013. Crude settled flat on Saturday after gaining Friday as data showing a slower U.S. growth rate in the second quarter Oil received an upward bump after German Chancellor Merkel signaled strong support for euro Japans imports of Iranian crude in June rose 60.5 percent from 106,162 bpd in May Crude is holding with a support at 4987 and resistance will be likely at 5013.

Mutual Funds Vs Direct Investing

Investing directly in the market is better than going to "Mutual Funds" since the mutual funds pay heavily to the mutual fund managers and also pays brokerage to the brokers. The cost of purchase for a mutual fund also goes up since they have to buy huge quantities rather than small lots from the market which significantly influence the price of the share. Information leakage from mutual funds resulting in front running also significantly affects the cost of buying the stock though SEBI and other government bodies trying to prevent it.

There is also a chance to hold some junk stocks. Also if you look at the holding of top mutual funds they hold none other than Nifty stocks which is known to everyone. The timing of the purchase is very important. You can ask that I do not know anything about stocks and will I not burn my fingers if I invest directly. No even people who know everything about stock market lose money. People who does not understand stock market can make more money than people who do.

Pick the top fifty stocks from the nifty and use your common sense to time the market. The best time to buy is when everybody sells. So whenever there is a drop of more than 5% in a single day for a particular stock buy the stock. Also buy one tenth of what you intend to put and keep on buying the nifty stocks and build a corpus for your retirement.

When to exit – When everyone says india is shining and stock markets are the only place to invest get out. Never forget the simple thumb rule BUY WHEN EVERYONE SELLS AND SELL WHEN EVERYONE BUYS.

Look at the returns yourself. Start small and you will be surprised that you are the best investment manager.

The Basics of Short Selling in Stock Market

What is short-selling?

Short-selling is the sale of shares that the seller does not own at the time of trading. Despite being a long-standing market practice worldwide, short-sales have been the subject of considerable debate and divergent views in most securities markets.

The first thought popping up in your mind would be – where do these shares come from which you are selling without possessing them in your portfolio of stocks. These come from your broker/brokerage firm that lends you the shares in lieu of your investment as collateral. You short sell these shares but subsequently you have to close the short by buying back the shares from market and then return it to your broker/brokerage firm. You are also charged some interest for the loan of shares you have taken.

Looking at the flow of shares in above flowchart, one would ponder why to borrow shares for selling in market and then transfer them back to the lender? The logic behind shorting is very simple; earning profit margin. Let’s see how??

If you think a stock is overvalued and expect that the price would come down in future for sure; you would wish to sell the shares at current levels at higher price. So you borrow the shares and sell them at higher price. And when the stock actually falls as you had speculated; you buy it from market at lower price and return it to the lender and the difference between the selling price (higher) and buy price (lower) is what you earned in the deal. So at the end you must close the short by paying back the shares and this is called as “covering the short”.Concluding this, investors who anticipate fall in the stock price go short to take advantage of market fall. An investor can hold the short for as long as he wants but he is charged an interest as it is similar to a loan taken in the form of shares. Also if during the course of loan, the company declares dividend or rights issue, it must be paid to the lender who is the actual owner of shares because you are just a borrower.

Short selling is considered to destabilize markets directly or indirectly. In 2001, the stock prices crashed heavily owing to short selling by big operators after which SEBI banned it. After a gap of 6 years in December 2007 SEBI came up with updated norms of short selling to cover the loopholes and ultimately institutional investor were also permitted to short sell.

Concluding this, short selling no doubt gives you an opportunity to earn profit by taking advantage of downturn of markets, it might bring in huge loss to your investment if stock price moves up. Because in real sense, shorting is a bet against the current market trend. When stock is at current higher levels, you are expecting it to fall down and entering the arena. Speculation is what makes shorting a riskier job. So beware of the dark side of shorting before you actually go for it!

Trading Goal in Stock Markets

Whenever someone tries to get his business for profit, he must be having some targets or we say Goals In his/her mind, right? So, stock market is also one type of business and people should keep some Goals in their mind. Here we are going to know 3 important Targets about Stock Market..

3-Important targets to achieve :

You should stretch your comfort area to grow high.

Always be clear and to the point about what you want.

Create some good ideas to measure your progress.

Here I'll have to mention that the You must preserve what you already have, never try to invest all that, otherwise you will be no more in the stock market. Preserve your capital whenever in doubt, and 2012 may end up being your most profitable year yet! Same formula can be applied for year-2013 if it succeeds in 2012.

Keep a look at Free Intarday Tips that many sites are providing on day-by-day bases.

When you set your targets for year-2012, don't just focus on the results you want - be sure to include details on the process which you're going through to achieve those results. It's one thing to say you want to make X thousand rupees this month, but it's another to pair that number with a quantifiable method of scanning and sorting stocks or a specific trading tips. Put your specific targets down with a specific plan for achieving them, and you'll be much better prepared for revisions later if necessary.

Once you've set your targets, monitor them regularly! Write them out and sign them. Tape them the side of your monitor - anywhere that you will see them on a regular basis to remind yourself what you're aiming for and where you're targeted.

Friday, July 27, 2012

Ulip vs Mutual Funds

I am not writing one more word on should you buy a UL or a MF product. Enough has been written in the world about this, right.

I was just trying to see how both the regulators are looking at the products.

1. ULIP sellers can make a policy illustration: It is mandatory that the person selling a UL plan MUST make a policy illustration – how the fund will look 30 years later.

The Mutual fund industry thinks it should NOT make projections in order to sell the product. So mutual fund agents will give you vague answers.

Of course the MF industry’s approach is correct. When a policy illustration is made, it is ACTUALLY a cost illustration, NOT a projection – but who has the time to explain all this?

2. Amitabh Bachhan, Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid can all sell life insurance – and fairly obviously ULIP but the SEBI says celebrity selling of mutual funds is not allowed. Period. No great reason, but not allowed.

3. The ulip commissions are still in double digits, and has recently become a value based trail – just like the mutual fund industries. However it is far, far more profitable to sell life insurance vis-a-vis mutual funds.

The regulators frankly do not care how the sales happens…

there could be more…will do as and when…

(2:26 PM 07/27/2012) PPRM SELL CALL UPDATE: BOOK A PROFIT AT 43650 OR TRAIL UR SL AT 43900 FOR NEXT TGTS

(1:53 PM 07/27/2012) EXIT FROM SILVER CALL AT CMP( WAIT FOR FRESH CALL) 53310

1:44 PM 07-27-2012 book partial profit in jublfood at 1140 and move sl to cost

1:08 PM 07-27-2012 SELL JUBLFOOD 1150 FOR TRAGET OF 1140-1130 STOP LOSS 1161

EUR ZONE : Spanish Unemployment Rate : 24.6% VS 24.4%, SUPPORTIVE FOR METALS

(12:53 PM 07/27/2012) PPRM AUG SELL ARND 43760-80 SL 44110 TGT 43450/43110 : MCX

The Due Date Rate of Natural Gas Future Contract expired on July 26, 2012 has been fixed at Rs. 173.70 per MMBTU.

(12:09 PM 07/27/2012) SOYABEAN BUY CALL TGT 4695 AHIEVED

(11:55 AM 07/27/2012) TATASTEEL BTST CALL TGT 402 AHIEVED BOOK FULL PROFIT

11:50 AM 07-27-2012 BOOK PARTIAL PROFIT IN CRUDEOIL AT 5005,HOLD REST WITH SL AT COST

11:01 AM 07-27-2012 sl hit in sbin exit counter

Today's Commodity Updates 27/07/2012

Gold trading range for the day is 29658-29942.Gold ended down due to rupee firmness but prices were supported by hopes of more monetary easing after Draghi’s comments. Central banks in Russia, Kazakhstan make large gold purchases in June. Investors are now eyeing US GDP figure for Q2 which is likely to show US grew at its slowest pace in year. Gold is trading above 50DMA, which is at 29703, now intraday gold is holding support at 29658 and resistance at 29942.

Silver trading range for the day is 52880-53758.Silver dropped but downside was limited after Draghi pledged to do whatever was necessary to protect euro zone from collapse. Sharper appetite for risk and 1% loss in dollar versus euro as result of Draghi comments also supported. Bullions demand from the investment and physical sectors continued to remain weak. Silver is trading below 50DMA, which is at 54326, with intraday support seen at 52880 and resistance at 53758.

Crude trading range for the day is 4909-5077.Crude rose after ECB President said ECB was ready to do whatever was necessary to avoid Eurozone collapse. A drop in U.S. jobless-benefit claims for last week also supported prices. Oil remain about 20% below their 2012 highs, pressured by slowing global growth that has affected demand. Crude is holding with a support at 4909 and resistance will be likely at 5077.

(10:42 AM 07/27/2012) SILVER SEPT BUY ARND 53290-300 SL 53079 TGT 53498/53670 : MCX

9:52 AM 07-27-2012 SELL SBIN FUT AROUND 2040-2038 FOR TARGET OF 2020-2000 STOP LOSS 2060

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Crucial factors for Retirement corpus creation

This may sound very simple, but then simple things which we think are common sense need to be told…right?

So what are the 4 crucial factors that determine your retirement corpus amount? Well if you do not know, here are the 4 factors:

1. How much you invest:

Many people think that they know that power of compounding works, etc. still clearly a rising SIP is better than a flat SIP. So if you start with a Rs. 5k sip in your first year at work, slowly keep increasing it to 6k, 7k, 10k by the time you are 35 you could be investing Rs. 50k a month….surely it has a greater impact. The more the merrier. Higher the amount, greater the corpus.
2. Asset allocation

I know I have an equity bias, but if you are a 2007 MBA and have started a SIP listening to me, apologies too. Take a longer view on a well managed fund..and look at it closer to retirement, I am sure you will like the advice. Sadly 4-5 year SIPs do not look so healthy, but when the market goes to 30,000 and your friends say ‘Arre 15000 mein invest karna chahiye tha…you can say…’yes I did it’. Believe me, your portfolio looking like a hero in a down market is far more important. In a rising market all look smart. So when you are under 50 please be 100% in equity. Of course your pf and ppf are in debt..that is good enough.

3. Time, time, time:
I have said this a zillion times. How long a time your money spends in the market is far more important. So even if you can start only a small amount like Rs. 50oo…please make a start. Not even 5k? start with 4k…but for heavens sake make the start…
4.The discipline to stick to this

let me tell you guys, it is not easy. Too many people around you will push you, ridicule you, media will do stories like ‘is long term investing dead’ or ‘hdfc top 200/ franklin india blue chip / I pru discovery/ Dsp / has done badly in 3 quarters’. Learn to ignore the noise just stay focused. My dropping dead should not bother you / change your focus. You are building a corpus for YOUR retirement, not mine. Forget all the jargon and super exclusive pms or other shit that is shown to you.
Remember kids qualified in the past 4-5 years and who are doing a SIP listening to me…the dates have just changed, but the logic of equity and long term still holds.
I was clear that you were building a corpus for your retirement. If that has not changed, nor will my promise. Remember speed at a point in time is not as imp as the avg speed of the journey!

4:30 PM 07-26-2012 BUY MCX ZINC JULY AT 101-101.05, SL below 100.70, FOR TARGET 101.75

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said

European stocks climbed after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said policymakers will do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. U.S. index futures and Asian shares rose.

4:12 PM 07-26-2012 Book Partial Profit in Gold at 29860-29850, rest hold for target with SL at cost

2:06 PM 07-26-2012 BOOK PROFIT IN RLIANCE AT 713

(1:46 PM 07/26/2012) SILVER SEPT SELL ARND 53235-50 SL 53450 TGT 53040/52825 : MCX

(1:42 PM 07/26/2012*) RMSEED SELL CALL UPDATE: BOOK A PROFIT AT 4442 OR KEEP SL AT 4496 FOR NEXT TGTS

(1:40 PM 07/26/2012) COPPER SELL CALL UPDATE: BOOK A PROFIT AT 417.90 OR TRIAL UR SL AT 420.50 FOR FURTHER TGTS

European Data

1:30pm EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 3.2% 2.9% 2.9%
1:30pm EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.2% -0.1% -1.6%
1:30pm EUR Private Loans y/y -0.2% -0.2% -0.1% IMPACT : EURO LOOKS SLIGHT POSITIVE..

1:33 PM 07/26/2012) RMSEED SELL ARND 4465-70 SL 4512 TGT 4425/4400 : NCDEX

LME Inventories:

Copper -1525, Aluminium -5625, Nickel +474, Zinc -2375, Lead -1950

(1:29 PM 07/26/2012) MENTHA SELL CALL UPDATE: BOOK A PROFIT AT 1351.50 OR TRAIL UR SL AT 1369 FOR NEXT TGTS

Must Know Stock Market Investing Rules

There is a general tendency among people in Tier 2 and 3 cities of India that anyone who invests in stock market is considered to be a gambler. Even the investor himself feels hesitant to invest in volatile stock markets after listening to thousands of unsuccessful stories in stock markets. So let’s discuss, if you don’t want to invest in stocks, what is the other option left with you. More than 60% of the people in India keep their money in bank saving account which yields 3.5-4% and they feel proud when they invest their hard earned money in fixed deposits which guarantees them 8% yearly returns. But equity investment offers much better returns i.e 16% annualised returns since inception

But one must keep the following points in mind before investing

Invest for long Term Only

There is a general tendency among retail investors to enter markets near all time highs. I still know a lot of retail investors who have their investments made at 2008 year 21000 levels. But I have seen no one who has invested at 2008 lows i.e 7500 Sensex intraday lows. I think, this explains the whole story of Indian investment style. So a learning from here is one should invest in market when all others have a pessimistic view on the markets. It works seriously.

12:42 PM 07-26-2012 BGR ENERGY SL HIT EXIT COUNTER

(11:37 AM 07/26/2012) RPOWER BTST SL TRIGGERED

Today's Commodity Updates

Gold trading range for the day is 29500-30034.Gold rallied boosted by speculation the Fed will introduce fresh stimulus measures. Bullion gains on speculation ECB will create new money to fund rescue operations for troubled euro zone countries. SPDR gold trust holdings dropped by 2.11 tonnes to 1252.53 tonnes. Gold is trading above 50DMA, which is at 29691, now intraday gold is holding support at 29500 and resistance at 30034.

Silver trading range for the day is 52620-53936.Silver gained on speculations ECB will award ESM a banking license and Fed will provide more easing in near future. Bullion traders are looking ahead to Fed’s next policy meeting on July 31 and August 1 for clues on central banks attitude. Ewald Nowotny said that there were some arguments in favor of giving the euro zones bailout fund. Silver is trading below 50DMA, which is at 54370, with intraday support seen at 52620 and resistance at 53936.

Crude trading range for the day is 4837-5063.Crude sanked reversing early gains, as the US revealed a surprise jump to its crude stockpiles. Prices were also downbeat amid persistent concerns over the Eurozone debt crisis. Crude oil inventories rose 2.7mbls last week on sharply higher imports, defying forecasts for modest drawdown. Crude is holding with a support at 4837 and resistance will be likely at 5063.

(10:54 AM 07/26/2012) RMSEED STBT CALL TGT 4410 AHCIEVED BOOK FULL PROFIT

SUN TV ABOVE 292 OPENS FOR 302-308 SL 282 CMP 291

10:44 AM 07-26-2012 BUY BGR ENERGY AROUND 278-277 FOR TARGET OF 284-288 STOP LOSS 274.8 CAH LEVELS

(10:31 AM 07/26/2012) MENTHA AUG SELL ARND 1358-60 SL 1377.20 TGT 1342/1325 : MCX

10:31 AM 07-26-2012 BUY MCX GOLD AUGUST B/W 29822-29805 SL BELOW 29750 FOR TGTS 29935-29980

10:22 AM 07-26-2012 SELL RELIANCE FUT BELOW 717.5 FOR TARGET OF 710-705 STOP LOSS 723.2

Index Levels

NIFTY LEVELS-R-1 5130 R-2 5150 S-1 5085 S-2 5055
BANK NIFTY - R-1 10300 R-2 10360 S-1 10220 S-2 10170

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

(1:36 PM 07/25/2012) MENTHA SELL CALL UPDATE: BOOK A PROFIT AT 1326. OR TRAIL UR SL AT 1339 FOR FURTHER TGTS

LME Inventories: Copper -25, Aluminium -4725, Nickel +1182, Zinc +1550, Lead -2150

Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Stocks Daily : COPPER : DOWN 825, ALUMINIUM : DOWN 99, ZINC : DOWN 1224, LEAD : DOWN 177, RUBBER : DOWN 80

(1:24 PM 07/25/2012) FREH CALL MENTHA SELL ARND 1333-36 SL 1352 FOR TGTS 1319/1301 : MCX

12:43 PM 07-25-2012 BOOK PARTIAL PROFIT IN NIFTY AT 5105 AND MOVE SL TO COST

12:26 PM 07-25-2012 BUY JINDALSTEEL FUT ABOVE 399 FOR TARGET OF 408-412 STOP LOSS 394.8

(12:18 PM 07/25/2012) MENTHA AUG SELL ARND 1340-43 SL 1362 TGT 1321/1301 : MCX

(12:15 PM 07/25/2012) RMSEED SELL CALL UPDATE: BOOK A PROFIT AT 4391 OR TRAIL UR SL AT 4425 FOR NEXT TGTS

(12:06 PM 07/25/2012) GOLD AUG SELL ARND 29675-80 SL 29725 TGT 29630 /29590 : MCX

(12:02 PM 07/25/2012) SILVER SELL CALL UPDATE: BOOK A PROFIT AT 52930 OR TRAIL SL AT 53101 FOR NEXT TGTS

(11:42 AM 07/25/2012) CRUDEOIL AUG SELL ARND 4980-85 SL 5012 TGT 4955/4930 : MCX

(11:34 AM 07/25/2012) YESBANK POSITIONAL BUY CALL TGT 344.70 ACHIEVED ( CALL GIVEN YESTERDAY AT 340.70)

10:08 AM 07-25-2012 BUY MCX COPPER AUGUST AT 420.6-420.5 SL BELOW 419.4 FOR TGTS 422.5-423.2

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

2:23 PM 07/24/2012) YESBANK POSITIONAL BUY CALL UPDATE: INTRADAY TRADERS CAN BOOK A PROFIT AT 343 (NEXT POSITIONAL TGTS 344.70/349/355)

(1:20 PM 07/24/2012) GOLD SELL CALL UPDATE: BOOK A PROFIT AT 29395 OR TRAIL UR SL AT 29445 FOR FURTHER TGTS

1:02 PM 24/07/2012 SL HIT IN COPPER, EXIT FROM THE COUNTER

(12:57 PM 07/24/2012) NICKEL JULY SELL ARND 874.50-876 SL 883.50 TGT 868/860 : MCX

12:33 PM 24/07/2012 BUY M&M FUT AROUND 694-693 FOR TARGET PF 700-705 STOP LOSS 688.5

12:26 PM 24/07/2012 SELL BAJAJ AUTO FUT BELOW 1565 FOR TARGET OF 1550-1530 STOP LOSS 1580

11:46 AM 24/07/2012 BUY MCX CRUDE OIL AUGUST NEAR 4982, SL AT 4957 FOR TGTS 5041

11:41 AM 24/07/2012 BANK NIFTY- 10360 BOOK PARTIAL PROFIT AND MOVE SL TO COST

10:29 AM 24/07/2012 BUY MCX COPPER AUGUST NEAR 421.7-421.5 SL BELOW 420.6 FOR TGTS 423.5-424.35

10:15 AM 24/07/2012 BUY CROMPGREAVE ABOVE 120 FOR TARGET OF 124-126 STOP LOSS 117.5 CASH LEVELS

Monday, July 23, 2012

(4:52 PM 07/23/2012) PPRM SELL CALL IS CONTINUED AS STBT

(3:34 PM 07/23/2012) RMSEED SELL CALL TGT 4350 ACHIEVED

(2:50 PM 07/23/2012) NIFTY SELL CALL TGT 5125 ACHIEVED

2:40 PM 23/07/2012 TATAMOTORS 217.5 BOOK PARTIAL PRFIT AND MOVE SL TO COST

Interpreting Moving Average Signals

Overview

Moving averages provide input into the overall direction and momentum of a scrip.
Because moving averages are easy to apply, they are often used in conjunction with other indicators to confirm a market direction.

SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE SELL SIGNAL

A sell signal is indicated when the spot rate crosses under the moving average.
This suggests that the market price is losing momentum and is under-performing when compared to the moving average.

Single Moving Average and Spot Rate Sell Signal
In the chart above, note where the spot rate crosses under the moving average – this is a classic sell signal.
The fact that the "double-top" chart pattern occurs at roughly the same point, reinforces the level as a likely sell opportunity.
This is indeed the case as the spot rate suffers a pronounced decline shortly after the initial crossing.

SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE BUY SIGNAL

When the spot rate crosses over the moving average, this is an indication that the spot rate is trending upwards as it is increasing at a faster rate than the moving average.
For this reason, this is typically seen as a potential buy opportunity.
Again, you are advised to confirm the analysis – in this case, the "reverse head and shoulders" pattern (as seen in the chart below) is a common rate reversal signal:

Single Moving Average and Spot Rate Buy Signal

When using spot rate and moving average cross over trading signals, it is important to keep two points in mind.
Depending on market volatility, cross overs can be extremely unreliable so it is advisable to seek additional confirmation before acting. In the buy and sell examples we examined here, the formation of a double-top and a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern helped confirm the market direction.
The number of reporting periods included in the moving average calculation can have a tremendous effect on the moving average. The basic rule to remember is that the fewer the number of reporting periods, the closer the average stays with the spot rate.

SIGNALS PRODUCED BY MULTIPLE MOVING AVERAGE CROSSOVERS
Traders often place several moving averages on the same price chart. Typically, one of the moving averages will be designated the faster moving average consisting of fewer data points, and one will be a slower mover average.
By definition, the faster moving average will be more volatile than the slower moving average. This is demonstrated in the following 1-day price chart that has been modified to include two moving averages:

The fast moving average is calculated from just seven days of data.

The slow moving average is based on a full thirty days of data:

Slow and Fast Moving Averages Showing Crossover Signals
The moving average with the fewer data points (the fast moving average) responds more quickly to a change in the spot rate.
If the fast moving average crosses above the slower moving average, it is considered abuy signal.
When the faster moving average crosses below the slower moving average, it is considered a sell signal.

Slow and Fast Moving Averages Showing with Very Slow Moving Average

Reading Relative Strength Index(RSI)

Overview

The Relative Strength Index is straight-forward to interpret, and produces very clear trade signals.
The RSI scale has two defined regions - the first one starts at 0 and goes to 30, while the second region covers the scale from 70 to 100.
According to Wilder, an RSI value falling within the 0 to 30 region is consideredoversold. Traders assume that an oversold currency pair is an indication that the falling market trend is likely to reverse (i.e. a bullish signal) and is treated as abuy opportunity.

Relative Strength Index showing oversold condition

On the other hand, an RSI value falling into the 70 - 100 region of the scale, is regarded as being overbought.
This signal suggests that the resistance level for the currency pair is near or has been reached and the rate is likely to fall; traders would interpret this as a sell(i.e. a bearish signal) opportunity.

Relative Strength Index showing overbought condition

CENTERLINE CROSSOVERS

In addition to the overbought and oversold indicators described above, technical traders using the Relative Strength Index also look for what is known as a centerline crossover.
A rising centerline crossover occurs when the RSI value crosses over the 50 line on the scale, moving towards the 70 line.
A falling centerline crossover occurs when the RSI value crosses under the 50 line towards the 30 line.

Relative Strength Index showing Centerline Crossovers

(2:15 PM 07/23/2012) PPRM AUG SELL ARND 43020-40 SL 43435 TGT 42630/42350 : NCDEX

(2:12 PM 07/23/2012) RMSEED SELL CALL TGT 4380 ACHIEVED

(2:05 PM 07/23/2012) RMSEED SELL CALL UPDATE: BOOK A PROFIT AT 4391 OR TRAIL UR SL AT 4426 FOR FURTHER TGTS

COMMODITY UPDATES FOR 23/07/2012

Gold trading range for the day is 29258-29480.Gold edged up as market sentiment improved after Russia revealed it had boosted its bullion reserves in June Gold fell earlier as euro tumbled after Spain’s Valencia region said it would seek central government help to repay its debts SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 2.41 tonnes to 1254.64 tonnes. Gold is trading below 50DMA, which is at 29671, now intraday gold is holding support at 29258 and resistance at 29304.

Silver trading range for the day is 52467-53250.Silver recovers as safe-haven appeal of precious metal re-emerged amid growing fears that Spain will need a full bailout . Ongoing hopes of further stimulus from global central banks to boost world growth underpinned prices. Euro zone finance ministers approved the terms of a loan of as much as EUR100 billion to recapitalize Spanish banks. Silver is trading below 50DMA, which is at 54534, with intraday support seen at 52767 and resistance at 52901.

Crude trading range for the day is 5015-5165.Crude fell from a multiday rally on profit-taking, a stronger dollar and revived concerns about the euro zone. U.S. demand for crude oil, gasoline and distillates fell in June from a year earlier, API said. Adding to the bearish sentiment was news that China will load full contracted volumes of Iranian oil in July. Crude is holding with a support at 5074 and resistance will be likely at 5108.

Copper trading range for the day is 418-425.70.Copper slid weighed down by fresh worries about Spain’s debt crisis and a stronger dollar. Metals tracked lower after Beijing issued reminder to local governments to keep clamping down on property speculation. The global market for refined copper was in a 384,000- tonne deficit from January to April 2012 – ICSG Warehouse stock for Copper at LME was at 253225mt that is up by 675mt.

Zinc trading range for the day is 101.30-102.95.Zinc settles up but overall market was caution as China again became one of factors affecting movements in financial market.US dollar was favored as safe-haven amid increasing investor worries over Chinese demand Zinc weekly stocks at Shanghai exchange came down by 1677 tonnes. Warehouse stock for Zinc at LME was at 1015075mt that is up by 2700mt.

Nickel trading range for the day is 869-892.Nickel settled up but trend remain weak as economic uncertainty in Europe has increased resulting in shorter visibility for demand. Normal seasonality and the declining nickel price have had an adverse effect on distributors buying behavior. Mainly impacted by normal seasonality, prices for stainless steel in third quarter are expected to be slightly lower. Warehouse stock for Nickel at LME was at 110658mt that is down by -516mt.

Aluminum trading range for the day is 103.50-104.80.Aluminium is trading in the range as European secondary aluminum prices remained flat last week. Chinas confirmation of strict property curb will erode metals demand. Aluminum weekly stocks at Shanghai exchange came up by 8372 tonnes. Warehouse stock for Aluminum at LME was at 4832425mt that is up by 29875mt.

Nat.Gas trading range for the day is 168.73-171.93.Natural gas ended higher as ongoing hot temperatures are expected to support demand for gas-powered electricity. Gas remained supported after updated forecasts showed that above-normal temperatures were expected to remain. Spot prices have rallied nearly 25% in the past three weeks, as extreme heat conditions boosted demand. Natural Gas is holding with a support at 168.73 and resistance will be likely at 171.93.

Mentha oil trading range for the day is 1242-1371.Menthaoil spot is at 1455-.Spot market is up by Rs.45-.Mentha oil rose on rising demand from pharmaceutical units. Reports of ban on Pan masala pressurized the market sentiments. The total arrivals of Mentha oil stood at 600-650 drums.

Pepper trading range for the day is 42945-43785.Pepper dropped on profit-taking triggered by weak exports, though slack spot supplies restricted downside. Latest reports keep production estimates in Vietnam at 1.35-1.40 lh tonnes vs 1.0-1.10 lh tonnes. In April, pepper exports fell 47 percent to 1,200 tonnes from a year ago. Spot pepper gained 85.7 rupees to 42114.25 rupees per 100 kg in Kochi market.

Soybean trading range for the day is 4828-5182.Soyabean hit a record high tailing an overseas rally and on poor rains in growing areas. This year soybean production (in India) is likely to be slightly lower than last year. NCDEX accredited warehouses soya bean stocks dropped by 31 tonnes to 4082 tonnes. At the Indore spot market in top producer MP, soybean gained 121 Rs to 4941Re 100 kgs.

Jeera trading range for the day is 15759-16693.Jeera dropped due to profit booking after prices gained on strong demand from overseas buyers. Declining spot supplies at the end of the peak arrival season aided sentiment. NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks dropped by 1488 tonnes to 7558 tonnes. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera gained 15.4 rupees to end at 15947.9 rupees per 100 kg.

CPO trading range for the day is 565.9-588.3.Crude palm oil ended higher supported by rising demand in spot markets. Gains limited following improved weather forecasts in drought-hit areas of the U.S. Midwest, easing worries over limited supplies. Malaysia’s July 1-15 palm oil shipments fell 21% from a month earlier to 563,603 tons. Crude palm oil prices in spot market gained by 2.10 rupees and settled at 570.10 rupees.

Wheat trading range for the day is 1419-1491.Wheat ended with gains on the back of firm export demand along with strong physical demand. Limited arrivals in the domestic markets also supported the firm trend. NCDEX accredited warehouses wheat stocks gained by 99 tonnes to 4690 tonnes. In Delhi wheat prices gained 13.3 rupee to end at 1341.65 rupees per 10 kg.

Chana trading range for the day is 4787-4943.Chana rose bolstered by strong demand from domestic traders and millers due to the upcoming festival season Chana production is expected to fall to 7.58 mln tonnes as compared to 8.22 mln tonnes last year. NCDEX accredited warehouses chana stocks dropped by 625 tonnes to 80748 tonnes. In Delhi spot market, chana fell down by -59.4 rupee to end at 4950 rupee per 100 kgs.

Ref soya oil trading range for the day is 800.88-818.68.Ref soya oil ended higher tracking gains in spot demand amid firm overseas market. India has lifted a six-year freeze on the base import price of refined palmolein. India’s soymeal exports rose to 180,987 tonnes in June, from 117,600 tonnes the same period a year ago. At the Indore spot market soy oil edged up by 0.85 rupee to 792.75 rupees 10 kgs.Gold trading range for the day is 29258-29480.Gold edged up as market sentiment improved after Russia revealed it had boosted its bullion reserves in June Gold fell earlier as euro tumbled after Spain’s Valencia region said it would seek central government help to repay its debts SPDR gold trust holding dropped by 2.41 tonnes to 1254.64 tonnes. Gold is trading below 50DMA, which is at 29671, now intraday gold is holding support at 29258 and resistance at 29304.